The earth’s climate is quickly changing. The critical question today is whether this
change is due to the natural course of nature or is the direct result of human
activities. I believe current scientific
evidence supports the claim of human-induced acceleration of global warming and
deterioration of the earth’s present-day ecosystems.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) also supports this claim in their report “Climate Change 2007,
Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers”. For this final class blog, I will focus my discussion
on Cannon Beach, Oregon and the possible future weather and climate changes for
this coastal area.
The IPCC report, referenced above,
states their conclusion that the rising sea level is consistent with global
warming. The report states the warming
of the planet is without question because of direct observations indicating
increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, worldwide melting of
ice and snow, plus the rising global average sea level. The global average sea level has risen since
1961 at an average rate of 1.8 mm/yr and since 1993 at 3.1 mm/yr. It is not clear though whether the faster
rate for 1993 to 2003 reflects decadal variation or an increase in the
longer-term trend.
According to the report, the average Northern
Hemisphere temperatures from 1950 to 2000, a 50-year time period, were very
likely higher than during any other similar time period within the last 500
years. These same average temperatures
were also likely the highest in at least the past 1300 years. The report goes on to state that the
observational evidence shows most oceans are being affected by regional climate
changes, particularly temperature changes.
The warmer ocean temperature not only
creates a rising sea level for the Cannon Beach area, but also changes the
abundance and range of algal, plankton and fish along with the ocean salinity,
oxygen content and circulation. The
warmer climate for Cannon Beach would increase precipitation, particularly in
the winter months. The increase in precipitation could result in erosion of
beaches and sandy bluffs, inundation of coastal estuaries, flooding and damage
to water and sewer systems. The
infrastructure damage alone would devastate the local Cannon Beach economy, which depends
heavily on tourism.
In another IPCC report, “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and
Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation…Summary for Policymakers”, the
focus of the report is extreme weather and climate events.
The report states that a changing
climate can lead to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent,
duration, and timing of unprecedented extreme weather and climate events.
For coastal regions such as Cannon
Beach, this report states it is likely there has been an increase in extreme
coastal high water related to increases in mean sea level. The report also states there is evidence that
some extremes have changed as a result of anthropogenic influences, including
increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, and that it is
likely anthropogenic influences have led to the warming of extreme daily
minimum and maximum temperatures.
According to the same IPCC report, it
is likely that northern mid-latitudes, such as Cannon Beach, will experience an
increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation or an increase in the
proportion of total rainfall.
With the projected increased precipitation and
temperature changes comes the implication of increased flooding, which can
possibly cause extensive damage to the land and local economy. The report states it is very likely that the
mean sea level rise will continue the upward trend resulting in extreme coastal
high water levels in the future.
I agree with these two IPCC reports that
the warming of our planet could result in catastrophic events for coastal
regions such as Cannon Beach. Surely the dramatic
rise in sea level will cause beach erosions, devastation to the local economy, which
depends heavily on tourism, including fishing for both food and sport, and
local regionalized flooding. If the
devastation is extensive, as might be the case, then the climate extreme may
influence population mobilization and relocation of the local residents. Cannon Beach is already a small town, total population
around 1700 people, many of whom depend on tourism for jobs and income.
The term “mitigative” means “to moderate
in force or intensity; alleviate; to become milder”. When considering what
mitigative measures could be undertaken to help alleviate some of these
forecast changes, the second IPCC report, referenced above,
states that for coastal areas such as Cannon Beach there should be several
options implemented for risk management and adaptation.
Among the suggestions: (1) Maintenance of drainage systems
(2) Well technologies to limit saltwater contamination of groundwater
(3) Improved early warning systems
(4) Regional risk pooling
(5) Mangrove conservation, restoration, and replanting
The report goes on to state that specific adaptation options include rendering national economies more climate-independent and adaptive management involving iterative learning.
More mitigative measures suggested by several websites include international cooperation and climate negotiations, supporting renewable energy by investing in new technology, green building, reducing GHG emissions and monitoring of current and future emissions on a global basis, setting standards for clean air and water on a local and global basis, and education of the climate issues on both local and global levels.
The state of Oregon has been active in trying to find appropriate mitigative measures to cope with
climate change. The governor has appointed members to the Climate Change Integration Group (CCIG) to create a preparation and adaptation strategy for Oregon. The idea behind the group is to help individuals, businesses and government incorporate climate change into their planning processes. The panel considers all the different aspects of climate change then possible present-day actions to undertake.
The CCIG key recommendations are:
(1) Immediately begin preparing for climate change
(2) Act now to expand, enhance and reinvigorate mitigation efforts
(3) Determine how climate change will effect Oregon's diverse regions
(4) Assist Oregon's institutions and individuals in responding to climate change
(5) Develop and implement an education and outreach program
(6) Transform our planning processes to deal with climate change
(7) View responding to climate change as an economic development opportunity
(8) Incorporate the public health implications of climate change
(9) Continue to develop and refine a climate change research agenda for Oregon
(10) Provide funding for key action areas identified in this report
For the mitigation portion of these recommendations, the CCIG suggests moving towards a largely carbon-free economy by reducing harmful emissions. One of the ways to do this is to put a cap on the allowable greenhouse gas emissions. Another mitigative measure suggested in the report is to take action now to transform transportation and land use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
I think the state of Oregon is correct is taking action now by assessing the most likely causes of climate change and the human actions needed to deal with the possible consequences of inaction.
The future of our planet and all the occupants, human or otherwise, depends on local and global acknowledgement of climate change and our own responsibility to protect the earth, that which gives us life.
The state of Oregon has been active in trying to find appropriate mitigative measures to cope with
climate change. The governor has appointed members to the Climate Change Integration Group (CCIG) to create a preparation and adaptation strategy for Oregon. The idea behind the group is to help individuals, businesses and government incorporate climate change into their planning processes. The panel considers all the different aspects of climate change then possible present-day actions to undertake.
The CCIG key recommendations are:
(1) Immediately begin preparing for climate change
(2) Act now to expand, enhance and reinvigorate mitigation efforts
(3) Determine how climate change will effect Oregon's diverse regions
(4) Assist Oregon's institutions and individuals in responding to climate change
(5) Develop and implement an education and outreach program
(6) Transform our planning processes to deal with climate change
(7) View responding to climate change as an economic development opportunity
(8) Incorporate the public health implications of climate change
(9) Continue to develop and refine a climate change research agenda for Oregon
(10) Provide funding for key action areas identified in this report
For the mitigation portion of these recommendations, the CCIG suggests moving towards a largely carbon-free economy by reducing harmful emissions. One of the ways to do this is to put a cap on the allowable greenhouse gas emissions. Another mitigative measure suggested in the report is to take action now to transform transportation and land use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
I think the state of Oregon is correct is taking action now by assessing the most likely causes of climate change and the human actions needed to deal with the possible consequences of inaction.
The future of our planet and all the occupants, human or otherwise, depends on local and global acknowledgement of climate change and our own responsibility to protect the earth, that which gives us life.
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